Overview: global increase in temperature and precipitation changes beyond

 

Overview:

The aim is to demonstrate link between global warming
and precipitation fluctuations in Indian summer monsoon and to comprehend the
consequences of climate change trends on the dynamics of Asian monsoon. Since
1970, the persistent changes between positive and negative precipitation
anomalies arise dramatic increase of global air temperature.  Thus, there is a significant association
between global increase in temperature and precipitation changes beyond 1970’s.
Increase in the sea surface temperatures will increase the evaporation
variability, which in turn would intensify the variability of the Indian
monsoon rainfall. Even though the summer monsoon is stable as a whole, even
small variations can influence things like agricultural production and
commodities having a significant impact on a country, which has a population of
more than 1.34 billion.

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Introduction:

Monsoons have always been erratic and unpredictable in
nature. The climate change effect will intensify this nature of monsoon.  The monsoon weather systems are a result of
land-sea temperature differences caused by solar radiation. Monsoon rainfall is
affected by many weather systems like; Arctic oscillation, Siberian high, western
Pacific subtropical high, complex Asian topography i.e. The Tibetan plateau. Climate
models suggest that due to variability of monsoon rainfall year to year in a
warmer world there would be greater range between flood and drought conditions (Loo,
Billa and Singh, 2015).

Greenhouse gases and climate models
(CMIP3) (Turner and Annamalai, 2012):

•The multi-model mean suggest enhanced rainfall in
parts of South-Asia in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

•Drier conditions over South Asia are rare.

Results and discussion:

• 2°C warming -Greater unpredictability of Indian
summer monsoon (World Bank,2016).

•4°C warming – Extreme wet monsoon, current chance of
occurrence once in 100 years now is projected to occur every 10 years by the
end of the century.

•Average monsoon rainfall will increase under global
warming scenario and will decrease drastically after a few decades. Increasing
amount of pollution in the atmosphere has potential for  convective precipitation and contribution
towards increasing trends of extreme rain events (Nature, Climate change,
India).

•Local increase in temperatures are way more important
that global average temperature or El Nino index (Nature, Climate change,
India).

 

 

Conclusions

•Improvement
in hydrometeorological systems for weather forecasting and installation of
flood warning systems is essential for averting catastrophes in vulnerable
locations.

•Necessary
improvement in stimulation capability for day to day intraseasonal
variability  of monsoon in climate models
to have more confidence in projections.

 

 

References  

1.) Loo, Y., Billa, L. and Singh, A. (2015). Effect of
climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of
monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. Geoscience Frontiers, 6(6),
pp.817-823. 2.) Turner, A. and Annamalai, H. (2012). Climate change and the
South Asian summer monsoon. Nature Climate Change, 2(8),
pp.587-595. 3.) Walker Institute for Climate System Research. The Indian
monsoon and climate change. . 4.) World Bank report,
2016 5.) Nature, Climate change, India. 5.)
Asharaf,
S. and Ahrens, B. (2015). Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Processes in Climate
Change Scenarios. Journal of Climate, 28(13), pp.5414-5429. 6.) Meehl, G. and Arblaster, J. (2003). Mechanisms for projected
future changes in south Asian monsoon precipitation. Climate Dynamics,
21(7-8), pp.659-675.

 

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